Earlier this month I read through the presentation Lufthansa leadership shared with the media and their investors on Lufthansa Group (LHG) Capital Markets Day, on September 29th, 2025.

In the presentation, they lay out their plan to deliver an EBIT margin target of 8-10% by 2028 to 2030, double the 4% they returned in 2024.

One of the key drivers of their plan is “Local brand strength & hub leadership”, which they assert by claiming to be the “leading operator in Europe’s most affluent markets”, and through “hold[ing] stronger positions in most of their home markets than peers”, as the presentation slide (#35) below highlights.

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On August 11th, President Trump mobilized the National Guard to patrol the District of Columbia under the guise of restoring public safety.

Around the same time, Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) meaningfully ramped up enforcement, with roughly 1,200 arrests in the most of mid-Aug through mid-Sept.

By many accounts, the visible presence off troops and agents and accompanying surge in immigration enforcement had a chilling effect on the city:

“My workers are afraid,” said Luis Reyes, who owns several Washington dining spots. “Some of them quit. If you see the news, they detain people, even with permits. Some of them said they’ll come back when things cool off.”

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One of the most unstoppable trends in baseball has been the steady increase in fastball velocity, with relievers and now starters throwing meaningfully harder than they did ten, or even five, years ago.

A Minneapolis Twins fan site (humorously named Twinkie Town) put together some great graphics of this trend - so good that I’ll just re-post them below to illustrate the trend.

One thing to call out is that the trend has continued more or less linearly since 2022 (the latest year in the graphic) - the average fastball velocity for all pitchers in the 2025 season was 94.5 mph.

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“Elevate to Celebrate”, an all-time great sports catchphrase, entered the baseball lexicon sometime in 2016 or 2017, giving shape to a trend that had been underway but nameless.

During those years, players like Jose Altuve, Jose Bautista, and Daniel Murphy underwent well-publicized and shockingly successful swing transformations which led them to career best seasons.

The key? Banishing the advice of Little League coaches around the country, imploring batters to “square the ball up”. Instead, these batters focused on pulling their swing path up slightly, imparting an upwards trajectory on the ball.

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Earlier today, a friend sent me a link I knew I had to turn into a quick blog post - an article published August 5th in the Santa Monica Next titled “SMPD Stats Show Shocking Drop in Traffic Enforcement”.

The piece shares traffic stop and crash data obtained from the City Manager’s office. It shows a large, sustained decline in the number of citations written by the Santa Monica Police Department (SMPD) starting with the onset of the COVID pandemic, and continuing through today.

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Keibert Ruiz is one the absolute best players in baseball at putting bat on ball - he’s in the 96th percentile for avoiding whiffs, and the 97th percentile at avoiding strikeouts. He’s also one of the least productive hitters in the game, with a Batting Run Value in the 7th percentile. What on earth is going on?

The Data

A quick note before we survey the data - I made all of the charts below using MLB’s awesome Statcast data, which continues to expand and now has incredibly rich data on batters’ swings, hit quality, and more. Here’s a Custom Leaderboard that I used to feed the many analyses below, and here is Keibert Ruiz’s individual Statcast page for reference.

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Humor me with a quick thought experiment - imagine an industry. A handful workers in this industry are extremely well paid, while vast majority earn almost nothing. Many workers feel they are underappreciated in their current roles, so they frequently hop between employers. There are few ethical standards, so both workers and employers push the boundaries of acceptable behavior in pursuit of money and opportunity.

Surely we’re talking about a difficult power-law industry, right? Maybe Hollywood or Wall Street?

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Earlier this week I read a great article from Car and Driver, which ran some controlled tests to try to understand how electric vehicle acceleration varies as a function of battery charge level. In their research, they found that the Hyundai Ioniq 5 has a remarkably flat performance curve, while the Lucid Air and especially the Rivian R1T see more performance degradation as their battery charge levels drop.

While I have no quibbles with their methodology or takeaways - I was disappointed to see that the graphics they published to visualize their findings were overblown and kind of unrealistic looking, in a very Microsoft WordArt kind of way.

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A few weeks ago I got back in the Tidbyt-app-making business, relaunching my Planes Overhead app with a new backend. With that success still fresh in my mind, I wanted to keep the momentum going and try to finish off a project I had started a number of times before without being able to actually finish off - building a “departure board” for LAX.

The Inspiration

A few years ago I flew back to the US from Sydney and was blown away by the beautiful departures board that was mounted along the wall by their lounge.

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In March, news broke that a French scientist had been denied entry into the United States after making critical comments about the Trump Administration’s research policies.

The story wasn’t a one-off — it seemed to hint at a broader trend. Increasingly, tourists and travelers are being denied entry into the country or even detained for days or weeks. And now, the chill is starting to show up in the numbers, as foreigners rethink their travel plans.

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